The Australian Federal Department of Industry, Innovation and Science stated in its quarterly outlook report that as prices fall, Australia’s 2021-22 iron ore export revenue will fall to 80 billion Australian dollars. Due to the combined effects of the increase in export volume, strong prices and the depreciation of the Australian dollar, the country’s iron ore export revenue in 2019-20 surged from A$78 billion in the previous year to A$102 billion.
In 2021-22, with the commissioning of several large new mines in Western Australia, Australian iron ore exports are expected to increase from 860 million tons in 2019-20 to 905 million tons. Although the epidemic suppressed demand, the supply interruption in Brazil and strong demand in China pushed the price of iron ore to above US$120 per ton.
High consumption has led China to dominate the price trend of iron ore, but it is unlikely to accept high prices, and prices are expected to fall by the end of 2020. It is estimated that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the price of iron ore will be about US$100 per ton, falling to about US$80 per ton by the end of 2021, and falling to US$75 per ton by the end of 2022.